Monitor panel shipments drop by 13% in July, reaches a new low over the past year
According to WitsView’s survey, worldwide large-size panel shipments in July reached 32.7 million units, a 7.7% MoM decrease and a mere 1.3% growth on year. Beginning from June, due to rising inventory pressures, some brand and SI makers reduced the amount of panel orders. At the same time, panel prices also began to trend downwards. Meanwhile, according to the panel makers’ July’s 2Q08 investor conferences, where they announced their quarterly performance and 3Q08 outlook, the plummeting panel prices and over high inventory levels prompted them to scale back production by 10~15% during the current traditional strong third quarter. As time is needed to clear away the excess inventory, and with brand and SI makers still wary that further panel price declines may occur, large-sized panel shipments remained weak in July. With some panel makers switching some of the production to small and medium-sized panels, there was instead a notable shipment increase in this segment. Among the 3 main applications, monitor shipments saw the biggest decline, falling by 12.9% MoM to 13.8 million units, reaching one of the lowest points during this past year. TV and NB panels were respectively down by 1.7% and 4.5% to 7.7 million and 11.2 million units.
Figure: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (K units)
|
Application
|
Jun-08
|
Jul-08
|
MoM
|
|
TV
|
7,847
|
7,717
|
-1.7%
|
|
Notebook
|
11,730
|
11,201
|
-4.5%
|
|
Monitor
|
15,872
|
13,819
|
-12.9%
|
|
TTL
|
35,449
|
32,737
|
-7.7%
|
The aggregated large size panel area shipments in July reached 5.3 million square meters, down 4.6% MoM and up 10.6% YoY. Due to shipment increases for the above 40”, the TV segment still grew by 1.4% MoM to 2.95 million square meters. Monitors and NBs were down respectively by 14% and 4.8% to 1.6 million and 766K square meters.
Figure: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment ( K square meter)
|
Application
|
Jun-08
|
Jul-08
|
MoM
|
|
TV
|
2,908
|
2,950
|
1.4%
|
|
Notebook
|
804
|
766
|
-4.8%
|
|
Monitor
|
1,829
|
1,573
|
-14.0%
|
|
TTL
|
5,541
|
5,288
|
-4.6%
|
TV Panels
In July, TV panel shipments reached 7.7 million units, down by 1.7% MoM and up by 10.8% YoY. Area-wise, they grew by 1.4% MoM to 2.95 million square meters. Size-wise, small shipment declines were seen for the below 40” segment, which included the 26”, 32” and 37”. As for the above 40” segment, the increase in the 40”, 46” 47” and 52” resulted in a rise in the aggregated TV area shipments. Given the IT panel inventory adjustments, some of the production capacity was switched to TV panels in removing the excess panel inventory. However, due to flat end market sales and no notable demand increase from the Olympics, July’s shipments was slightly lower than in June. The TV shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
Monitor Panels
The aggregated monitor panel shipments in July reached 13.8 million units, down by 12.9% MoM and 11% YoY. As July marked the quarterly end for some brand vendors, they were still under inventory adjustment pressures. The excess inventory and anticipation that further panel price falls may occur made them more conservative in placing future orders. Size-wise, the mainstream 19”, 19”W, 22”W fell by roughly 20%. Their share fell respectively from 13.5%, 28%, and 15.9% in June to 12.7%, 25.5% and 13.2% in July. Among the mainstream segment, only the 17” witnessed a shipment increase, where it was up by 3%. Its shipment share reached 16.1%, surpassing the 22”W, and once again emerging as the second biggest shipment size. Separately, the 16:9 widescreen monitors also saw a small sequential growth, where it accounted for roughly 10% of the total monitor shipments. The monitor shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
NB Panels
In July, NB shipments reached 11.2 million units, down by 4.5% MoM and up by 13.8% YoY. Once again the continued shipment drop was due to the downstream clients’ inventory adjustments. For the more profitable NB segment, it has more room in suffering the panel price declines in exchange for more orders from clients. However, as brand vendors launch more low-priced NB products, some of the NB panel demand has shifted to the 7~10” segment. Size-wise, the shipment ratio of the 15.4”W reached 54.3%, down 0.8 percentage point from last month’s 53.5%. As for the 14.1”W, it was instead up by 1 percentage point to 27.9%. The NB shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
Conclusion
Although the market has entered the traditional strong third quarter, the large-sized panel shipments have already dropped consecutively for 2 months. In response, panel makers have cut back production. With the inventory still being cleared and panel makers already reducing the utilization rates, coupled by preparations for China’s National Day holidays and worldwide year-end sales promotions, it should substantially help stimulate forthcoming panel shipments. Still, there remains a big question mark as to whether the various macroeconomic factors will weigh on the consumer spending.
