Shipment increases for all three applications in September, growing by 5.7% to 37.3 million units
According to WitsView’s survey, worldwide large-size panel shipments in September reached 37.3 million units, a 5.7% MoM increase and a 6.4% growth on year. Due to preparations for China’s National Day holidays and year-end Christmas sales promotions, growth was seen for the three main applications during September. Meanwhile, amid further deterioration in the global financial storm, both the corporate and consumer confidence has hit an all-time low, resulting in a much weaker-than-expected market demand during the second half of 2008 when compared to previous years. Growth evidently started to slow down in June. Beginning from July, the annual growth rate was only in the single digits. For September, TV panels were up by 7.7% MoM to 9.9 million units. In the IT segment, NB panel shipments grew sequentially by 6% to 11.8 million units. As for monitors, after a period of inventory adjustments, they grew by 4.4% MoM to 15.7 million units.
Figure: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (K units)
|
Application
|
Aug-08
|
Sep-08
|
MoM
|
|
TV
|
9,154
|
9,857
|
7.7%
|
|
Notebook
|
11,123
|
11,794
|
6.0%
|
|
Monitor
|
14,998
|
15,652
|
4.4%
|
|
TTL
|
35,275
|
37,303
|
5.7%
|
The aggregated large-sized panel area shipments increased from 6 million square meters in August to 6.4 million square meters in September, up by 6.6% MoM. The main growth driver came from TV panels. Since 2008, with LCD TVs gradually replacing the traditional CRT models, coupled with the narrowing price gap with PDPs, the market penetration rate of LCD TVs maintained substantial growth. In September, its shipments rose by 7.2% MoM to 3.7 million square meters, attaining a new historical high. For NB and monitors, they respectively grew by 5.8% and 5.7% to 805K and 1.8 million square meters.
Figure: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment ( K square meter)
|
Application
|
Aug-08
|
Sep-08
|
MoM
|
|
TV
|
3,495
|
3,747
|
7.2%
|
|
Notebook
|
761
|
805
|
5.8%
|
|
Monitor
|
1,731
|
1,830
|
5.7%
|
|
TTL
|
5,987
|
6,382
|
6.6%
|
TV Panels
In September, TV panel shipments reached 9.9 million units, up by 7.7% MoM and 21.4% YoY. As mentioned earlier, the jump in TV shipments was attributed to preparations for China’s National Day holidays and year-end Christmas sales. Separately, due to the Korean players’ own-brand support, their TV panel shipments also rose significantly during September, up by nearly 20% MoM. Size-wise, in contrast to last year, the 40” and above market share rose by 4 percentage points to 32.7%, while the 30” class also increased by 3 percentage points to 46.6%. The 30” and above accounted for 80% of the total TV panel shipments. The TV shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
Monitor Panels
The aggregated monitor panel shipments in September reached 15.7 million units, up by 4.4% MoM, but down by 5.5% YoY, which were boosted by the traditional strong seasonality. But with its market penetration rate already very high, coupled by the PC desktop replacement effect from NBs, a negative annual growth rate has been seen since July. Separately, although 16:9 widescreen products are gradually gaining market traction, where the shipment ratio has increased from 11.6% in August to 13.1% in September, there is still no specific sales trend of the various sizes. In addition, many are only taking away the market share originally dominated by existing 16:10 sizes. Thus, up until now, there is no evident growth momentum. In September, the 18.5”W (16:9) and 26”W both grew by more than 60%. The 22” also witnessed strong growth, accounting for 16.9% of the aggregated monitor shipments. The monitor shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
Notebook Panels
In September, NB shipments reached 11.8 million units, up by 6% MoM and 13.6% YoY. As the Korean suppliers’ G5 and below lines have already been fully depreciated, they have greater flexibility in the price and production output adjustments. For September, their NB shipments grew notably by 12.3%. Size-wise, the mainstream 15.4”W fell by 10% over August. Sizes that saw more notable growth came from the 16:9 widescreen sizes, which included the 15.6”W, 16”W and 18.4”W. The shipment ratio of the 16:9 in September rose by 7 percentage points to 10.7%. The NB shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.
Conclusion
To sum up, shipments during 3Q08 fell by 4.9% QoQ. This mainly stemmed from the aggressive IT panel inventory pull-in during 1H08, which later resulted in excessive inventory levels, as the end market demand was subsequently severely impacted by the macroeconomic woes. Thanks to the Taiwan suppliers’ production cutbacks, based on the inventory levels during the quarterly end, it has returned a more healthy level. But as the market enters into the traditional slow fourth quarter, the end market demand is set to weaken further. For October, IT panel shipments are projected to fall by 3~5%, while TV panels will slip by 8~10%.
