Panel shipments down by 6.4% QoQ to 85.61 million units in first quarter of 2009

by WitsView on Apr.20 2009

Overall Panel Shipment Review for 1Q09

Following the severe market downturn in 4Q08, the impact from the macroeconomic woes could still be notably felt in 1Q09, as global large-sized TFT LCD shipments fell by another 6.4% QoQ to 85.61 million units. On a yearly basis, this was equivalent to a 17.4% decline. Area-wise, they too fell by 4.4% over 4Q08 to 14.51 million square meters.

Since Jan09 panel shipments started to slightly pick up, thanks to the very low inventory levels in the general supply chain. A so-called “rush order effect” was witnessed, which gradually lifted the market sentiment toward the forthcoming panel demand. Indeed, due to the particularly low shipment base level in Dec08, panel makers’ low utilization rates in Jan09 and Feb09, Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and fewer working days, the monthly shipment performance during Feb09 was relatively strong. Nevertheless, although the quarterly shipment drop over 4Q08 narrowed, a decline was still seen. For the first quarter of 2009, the aggregated shipment level was still situated at a relatively low point.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (K units)

TV Panel Shipment

In 1Q09, TV panel shipments fell to 24.05 million units, up by 2% QoQ and 2.5% YoY. Thanks to a delay in demand and China’s electronic product subsidy program for rural areas, shipments of small-sized TVs were notably strong. The ratio of the 26”W and below rose from 16.9% to 23%, up by 6.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, the 32”W still accounted for 42%. But for the 40”W and above, they were more affected by the sluggish market environment. Compared to 4Q08, their shipment ratio slipped by 5.3 percentage points. Hopefully, the launch of new models by TV brand vendors in the second quarter will stimulate the 40” and above panel shipments. 

Monitor Panel Shipment

In the monitor segment, shipments reached 35.27 million units, up slightly by 2.2% QoQ, but a staggering 27.8% YoY decline. Underpinned by the strong inventory replenishments in 1Q09, monitor panel shipments were stronger compared to the other two applications. Growth in the 16:9 segment, such as the 15.6”W, 18.5”W, 20”W and 21.5”W, were even more notable. At the moment, the monitor panel order visibility is expected to last at least until May. Despite the tighter supply of these new 16:9 display sizes, the end market demand will be the key determining factor in whether monitor panel prices and shipments can continue to increase. 

Notebook Panel Shipment

In 1Q09, NB panel shipments reached 26.29 million units, down 21.4% QoQ and 16.2% YoY. Size-wise, due to the replacement of the 8.9”W by the 10.”W in the Netbook segment, the latter’s shipment ratio rose by 6.5 percentage points. Other NB sizes that witnessed a shipment ratio growth included the 14.1”W, 15.6”W and 16”W. Meanwhile, the sluggish NB panel demand seen in 4Q08 continued through 1Q09. The still weak demand and impact from the Netbook products has kept the mainstream NB panel inventory at a relatively high point. Hopefully, as PC brand vendors are scheduled to launch new models beginning from 2Q09, it will more or less stimulate some growth. 

Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment

In 1Q09, the market share of the Korean panel makers remained above 50%, where it rose by another 3.4 percentage points to 53.7%. They aggressively expanded their market share in the monitor segment to 48.1%, which equaled to a 4.6 percentage point increase. In the NB segment, their share also climbed by 7.5 percentage points to 63.1%. Meanwhile, their TV ratio edged down by 0.9 percentage points. By contrast, Taiwan saw its market share fall by 2.2 percentage points to 40%. Among the 3 main applications, only the TV segment saw a 4 percentage point increase, which stemmed from China’s subsidy program. As for the NB and monitor panels, Taiwan’s ratio dropped respectively by 7.5 and 2.5 percentage points. Finally, the Japan and China makers both saw their share drop slightly by 0.6 percentage points, due to their lower utilization rates.

Table 2: Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (unit base)

Panel ASP

For 1Q09, the panel ASP by unit reached an average of $113, down by 18.6% QoQ. Meanwhile, the panel ASP by area reached $638, down by 18.7% QoQ. The average TV panel ASP reached $220, down by 31.4% QoQ. NB panels fell by 20.7% to $58. Finally, monitor panels edged down by 4% QoQ to $75. The smaller quarterly drop was attributed to the inventory restocking and panel prices hitting bottom.

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Panel shipments down by 6.4% QoQ to 85.61 million units in first quarter of 2009

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