Large-sized panel shipments rose by 2.6% MoM to 48.58 million units in August
According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) continued its seven consecutive month of growth, and reached 48.58 million units in Aug09, up by 2.6% MoM and 31.2% YoY1. Despite reduced glass supply due to the fire breakout at Corning’s furnace in Japan, optimism about the sales of the hot season in the second half of the year has fueled the growth momentum of panel shipment in August. Forecasts show that after the overall inventory reaches a relatively more sufficient level, compared to the previous months, panel prices may face a turning point, therefore, inventory adjustment of panel makers and their downstream clients is crucial. In light of the above, panel shipment performance will have to rely on end market sales performance during China’s National Day holiday and Christmas holiday.
Note 1: Shipment of IVO is included in our survey as of this month.
Looking at shipments of the 3 main applications, LCD TV panel shipments in August added 6.3% to 13.29 million units, driven by strong market demand and brand vendors’ aggressive promotion of new models in the second half of this year. In the IT product segment, notebook panels also benefited from the introduction of the new Windows 7 and the ultra-thin CULV models, total shipments reached 17.59 million units, up by 3.3% MoM. However, LCD monitors showed lackluster performance, with shipments slipping by 0.6% to 17.71 million units, because the increase in downstream customers’ inventory level has led to weaker demand. In a nutshell, TV panel shipments continued to grow, while growth of notebook panel shipments softened, and monitor panel slipped.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Aug-09 (K units)
The aggregated area shipment in August advanced by 4.1% MoM, and 31.2% YoY, from 7.549 to 7.858 million square meters. Among which, the main growth driver was TV panels, which grew by 7.2% MoM to reach total area shipment of 4,796 million square meters; NB panel area shipment grew by 3.4% MoM to 988 thousand square meters; and monitors fell by 2.1% to 2.07 million square meters. Overall, the increase of total area shipment is mainly credited to the shipment growth of TV panels, due to its relatively large size.
Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Aug-09 (K square meter)
LCD TV Panels
In Aug09, global TV panel shipments reached 13.29 million units, up by 6.3% MoM, and an astonishing 45.2% YoY. The analysis of shipment ratio showed that 40’’W and above TV panels increase by 1.2%, with 42”W, 46”W and 47”W, growing by 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. As for 40’’W below – the ratio of the mainstream 32’’W continued to drop, down by 1.8% to 38.3%; followed by 26’’W, the second most dominant size with a 1.6% increase in ratio; however, 19’’W and 22’’W slipped by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. In short, the evolution toward the large-sized TV panels is consistent with our projections in July.
Notebook Panels
The aggregated NB panel shipments (including the 8.9” and above) in August continued the growth momentum, and recorded 17.59 million units, an increase of 3.3% MoM, and 36.6% YoY. Size-wise, 12.1-inch and below Netbook panels advanced by 0.9%, among those, 10.x’’W shipment showed most salient growth due to the launch of new models, its ratio rose by 2.1% from 20.9% to 23%. As for 12.1-inch and above NB panels, shipment ratios of 16:9 models, namely, 14”W, 15.6”W and 16”W increased by 0.5%, 1.9%, 3.5% and 1.3%; consequently, shipment ratios of 16:10 products, such as 14.1”W, 15.4”W, and 17”W were squeezed by the 16:9 models and fell by 6.1%, 2.6% and 0.6% respectively.
This shipment ratio evolution is also observed on an annual basis – previously mainstream sizes 14.1’’W and 15.4’’W were squeezed by the 16:9 products, and their ratios fell to 10.1% and 4.8% this month from 22.7% and 44.5% in Aug08 respectively. The increase in the shipment of 10.x’’w is another factor influencing the changes in shipment ratio this year.
LCD Monitor Panels
After several consecutive months of inventory replenishment by downstream customers, it has drawn to a close and the inventory status of the overall supply chain has reached a healthy level, therefore, global monitor panel shipments dipped by 0.6% this month to 17,19 million units, but on a YoY basis, it still increased by 18.1%. Thanks to the recovery of global economy, which stimulated the demand for enterprise upgrades, the shipment ratios of the 17-inch models, which are predominantly used in commercial applications, grew by 3% MoM, the most significant change in August. 18.5’’W retained its position as the mainstream size, up by 1.1% in shipment ratio, while, on the other hand, 21.5’’W fell by 1.4%, the most substantial decline in this month. Notably, even though both 18.5’’W and 21.5’’W are 16:9 models, their performance differed due to difference in product pull-in by their customers.
