Large-sized panel shipments rose by 2.1% MoM to 49.59 million units in September
According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) continued its growth momentum since February this year and reached 49.59 million units in September 2009, up by 2.1% MoM and 26.1% YoY. Thanks to the stable supply of upstream components and continued stocking by downstream customers for the traditional hot season, large-sized panel shipments hit a new record high with 17.2% QoQ growth in the third quarter. However, with the high base period, subsequent growth rate will be more moderate. On the other hand, brand vendors have withstood the pressure of rising panel costs for several consecutive months; in a market where end-demand is dependent on the attractiveness of retail prices, the increase of panel price has led to higher pressure from increased set cost, making it difficult to lower retail prices; this has prompted brand vendors to request for a decrease in panel price, leading to a turning point in panel prices of several sizes.
Looking at shipments of the 3 main applications, driven mainly by strong demand from China’s National Day Holiday sales and year-end sales, LCD TV panel shipments in September grew 11.7% to 14.84 million units, the biggest growth among the three main applications. In the IT product segment, notebook panels continue to benefit from the introduction of the new Windows 7 models, total shipments reached 18.03 million units, up by 2.5% MoM. On the other hand, LCD monitor shipments continued to decline – this is due to the increase in downstream customers’ inventory due to weaker end market demand, monitor panel prices took an earlier-than-expected turning point of a downward trend in late September, as a result, total shipment volume slipped by 5.5% MoM to 16.72 million units.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Sep-09 (K units)
The aggregated area shipment in September advanced by 6.3% MoM, and 30.9 YoY, from 7.858 to 8.354 million square meters. Among which, the main growth driver was TV panels, which grew by a significant 11.6% MoM to reach total area shipment of 5.35 million square meters; NB panel area shipment also grew by 4.6% MoM to 1.034 million square meters; however, monitors fell by 5.1% to 1.969 million square meters.
Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Sep-09 (K square meter)
LCD TV Panels
In Sep09, global TV panel shipments reached 14.84 million units, up by 11.7% MoM, and an astonishing 50.6% YoY, thanks to strong year-end demand. Among them, 32”W remained mainstream, accounting for 38.4% of total shipments; this is followed by 26”W and 42”W, with ratios of 12% and 9.9% respectively. On the other hand, 16:10 models showed declining importance – 19”W slipped 0.6% to 1.0% and 22’’W slipped 1.2% to 1.1%. The ratio of 16:9 models added 1.8%, among them, ratio of 18.5”W and 24”W both grew by 0.5%; other sizes showed only minor changes. As LCD TV panel shipments have been growing sequentially since January this year, they have become a focus of the overall large-sized panel shipments.
Notebook Panels
The aggregated NB panel shipments (including the 8.9” and above) in September continued the growth momentum, and recorded 18.03 million units, an increase of 2.5% MoM, and 30.9% YoY. In terms of segments – ratio of Netbooks, with energy-saving and ultra slim features, reduced primarily due to the 2.3% decline of the 10.x"W, the most discussed model this year. Among the 12.1-inch (and) above segment, the focus is on the evolution of 16:9 and 16:10 models – 16:10 ratio reduced by 0.6%, though still accounting for 24.1% of the total, this is mainly due to the decrease of 15.4”W, down by 0.8%, indicating the possibility of switching (to 16:9 models?); the ratio of 16:9 models increased by 2.9%, indicating a gradual replacement of the 16:10 counterparts. Of total notebook panel shipments, the three most dominant sizes were 15.6"W, 10.x"W and 14"W, accounting for 28.3%, 20.7%, and 14.4% respectively.
LCD Monitor Panels
In Sept09, global monitor panel shipments fell 5.5% to 16.72 million units, (but on a YoY basis, it still increased by 6.8%). Due to panel oversupply, monitor panel prices took an earlier-than-expected turning point and declined in late September. As downstream customers’ and retailers’ inventory levels have reached a relatively sufficient level, to meet the strong year-end demand, the anticipation of further price drop lowered customers’ inclination to place orders this month. Wide-screen panels, which account for 80% of the total shipment, were affected the most – of which, ratio of 16:9 models fell by 2.3%, and 16:10 slid 0.6%. On the other hand, thanks to demand for enterprise upgrades, those that are predominantly used in commercial applications, namely 17” and 19” models, managed to sustain their shipment growth, their ratios grew by 1.7% and 1.3% MoM respectively, the most significant growth in September.
In order to meet the strong year-end demand, it is estimated that total panel shipments have already peaked in September, and downstream customers’ inventory has also reached a relatively healthy level; amid rising shipment volume, panel prices have also reached a relatively high point toward the end of September; demand momentum will gradually slow down, and the issue of panel oversupply may potentially occur in the fourth quarter. In light of the above, panel shipment volume in October may be slightly lower than that of September.
