Global large-sized panel shipments grew by 17.3% QoQ to 145.52 million units in 3Q09
Overall Panel Shipment Review for 3Q09
Extending the growth momentum from 2Q09, global large-sized TFT-LCD panel shipments grew by 17.3% QoQ to 145.52 million units, YoY growth has also exceeded the historic high, up by 32.0%1; among three main applications, both LCD TV and notebook panels celebrated outstanding double-digit QoQ growth, whereas LCD monitor panels only showed moderate growth, with mediocre shipment performance in the peak season. In terms of area shipment, spurred by substantial increase in volume and panel size, the aggregated area shipment surged 18.3% QoQ to 23.77 million square meters. On the whole, panel industry posted historic high performance in both unit shipments and area shipments in 3Q09.
Note 1: Shipment of IVO is included.
The main reason behind the growth of panel shipments in 3Q09 is the strong demand in the peak season during 2H09 – downstream customers have been stocking their channels to gear up for China’s National Holiday sales, and for Christmas holiday sales; furthermore, panel prices are on the rise, therefore, in anticipation of increasing panel prices, downstream clients are forced to purchase panels in advance to offset the cost difference, thus overall panel shipments continued to climb, and hit a historic high in 3Q09.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (K units)
Notebook Panel Shipment The demand from the launch of new Windows 7 models gave 3Q09 shipments a powerful shot in the arm – total NB panel shipment (including 8.9W and above) reached 52.65 million unit, up 28.4% MoM, a single quarter high, and 34.8% YoY increase. Size-wise, the low-cost Netbooks continued their outstanding growth, mainly driven by the 2.3% growth of 10.x”W shipment ratio, while 11.x”W added 0.4%. After two consecutive quarters of shipment growth, subsequent growth momentum of Netbook warrants close observation. As for large-sized notebook shipment ratios, those that recorded growth were mainly 16:9 products, such as 14"W (+6.9%) and 15.6"W (+7.7%), while 16:10 segment declined substantially by 16.7% to 28.1%. It is projected that amid the promotion of LED backlit models and launch of Windows 7 operating system, shipments in 4Q09 may be able to maintain the volume of 3Q09. Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment
TV Panel Shipment
In 3Q09, global LCD TV panel shipments continued to post the highest growth among all three applications, with 40.63 million units, up by 21% QoQ, and 52% YoY. The growth of TV panel shipments in 2009 was mainly driven by China’s domestic demand – thanks to outstanding performance during China’s National Holiday sales, the inventory build-up in the channels was effectively cleared away; on the other hand, encouraged by global economic recovery, the market holds an optimistic view towards LCD TV sales during the peak season. Size-wise, even though 32W is still the mainstream size with 38.8% shipment ratio, it fell by 1.7% QoQ; shipments of 40”W and above products were stimulated by brand vendors’ price promotions and increased 2.2% in shipment ratio.
Monitor Panel Shipment
3Q09 global LCD monitor panel shipments recorded another single quarter high at 52.23 million units, up by 5.5% QoQ; this is a significant increase of 17.5% compared to 3Q08, when the market was adversely affected by the financial downturn. Shipments in 3Q09 continue to demonstrate the conversion to 16:9 models, in particular, several 16:9 products such as 15.6"W, 18.5"W and 20"W, increased 1.5%, 4.8%, and 0.7% in shipment ratios respectively; on the other hand, 16:10 models, such as 19"W and 22"W, receded 4.5% and 3.4% respectively. However, as monitor panel prices in 3Q09 are on a rising trend, in particular, widescreen panel prices increased more substantially during early 3Q09, therefore, in an effort to maintain their profitability and market share, downstream vendors have been shifting their promotion focus to square models which are predominantly used in commercial applications, prompting an increase in shipment ratios of the 17’’ and 19’’, up by 2.2% and 2.0% respectively.
In order to meet the strong year-end demand, downstream customers’ inventory has already reached a relatively sufficient level, several panel sizes even faced the issue of oversupply, and their prices began to fall. As a result, in a bid to minimize losses from potential price drop, downstream customers have reduced their demand for panels, and thus, the market holds a conservative outlook toward shipment performance in 4Q09.
Notebook Panel Shipment
The demand from the launch of new Windows 7 models gave 3Q09 shipments a powerful shot in the arm – total NB panel shipment (including 8.9W and above) reached 52.65 million unit, up 28.4% MoM, a single quarter high, and 34.8% YoY increase. Size-wise, the low-cost Netbooks continued their outstanding growth, mainly driven by the 2.3% growth of 10.x”W shipment ratio, while 11.x”W added 0.4%. After two consecutive quarters of shipment growth, subsequent growth momentum of Netbook warrants close observation. As for large-sized notebook shipment ratios, those that recorded growth were mainly 16:9 products, such as 14"W (+6.9%) and 15.6"W (+7.7%), while 16:10 segment declined substantially by 16.7% to 28.1%. It is projected that amid the promotion of LED backlit models and launch of Windows 7 operating system, shipments in 4Q09 may be able to maintain the volume of 3Q09.
Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment
Looking at the market share of regional large-sized TFT-LCD panel shipments in 3Q09 – spurred by Taiwan panel makers’ utilization ramp up, Taiwan panel makers’ market share added 1.5% – in individual applications, Taiwan’s NB panel shares were in the lead with 3.7% increase in ratio, followed by TV panels at 1.3% increase, and LCD monitor panels only added 0.2%. Meanwhile, even though Korean panel makers’ market presence fell by 1.46%, it still topped the leaderboard at 50.1%; in individual applications, their TV and NB panels continued to benefit from the advantage of having first-tier brand vendors, topped the charts with 51.0% and 54.5% respectively; that said, in LCD monitor panels, Korea’s shares only added 1.1%, to 44.8%, second to Taiwanese makers’ share at 46.2%. As for Japanese and China panel makers’ regional share, stimulated by the expansion of new capacity, Japanese makers added 0.25%, whereas Chinese makers slipped 0.28%.
Table 2: Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment (unit base)
Panel ASP
As for 3Q09 panel ASP by unit area, stimulated by the persistent panel price increase and output optimization, average unit price was lifted to $132, up by 13.6% QoQ. Similarly, for panel ASP by area, the average unit price increased by 11.9% QoQ to $749. Average unit price increase among all three main applications is fairly consistent: LCD TV panels increased by 11.9% QoQ to $251; NB panels up by 11.4% QoQ to $66; and LCD monitor panels rose by 12.1% QoQ to $88.
