Large-sized panels posted outstanding performance in November 2009, indicating a stronger down cycle
According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) rose by 3.4% MoM to 49.53 million units in November 2009, and its YoY performance far-exceeded expectations, with a 74.2% surge. In a typical crystal cycle, panel shipments usually decline by November due to the slow season, and the global financial downturn further fueled the down cycle effect last year, Nov’08 panel shipments plummeted by 21.7% MoM. After the global economy gradually recovers, this year’s end-market sales in the U.S. and Europe during Thanksgiving and Christmas season was particularly outstanding compared to the same period last year; TFT-LCD panel industry showed a stronger down cycle thanks largely to brand vendors’ aggressive promotion to stimulate purchases, and the boom of China’s domestic demand. With optimistic outlook toward sales in China during New Year and Chinese New Year, manufacturers have begun to stock-up early, which helped spur the growth in panel shipments in November.
Looking at shipments of the 3 main applications – after 3 consecutive months of decline, inventory of LCD monitor panels has returned to a relatively healthy level; moreover, upstream and downstream customers’ optimistic outlook toward the market in 1Q10 prompted them to raise their previous production plan, and their inventory replenishment invigorated demand for panels during the down cycle. As a result, monitor panel shipments grew by 7.1% MoM to 16.24 million in November, or 55.3% YoY growth. Notebook panels continue to benefit from the conversion to new models equipped with Windows 7 OS, and shipments rose by 2.7% MoM to 18.17 million units, or 73.7% YoY growth. Thanks to China’s domestic demand stimulus program, shipments of LCD TV panels have been showing strong growth momentum, reaching 15.11 million units in November, up by 0.6% MoM.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Nov-09 (K units)
The aggregated area shipment in November grew by 4.0% MoM, from 8.248 million square meters to 8.58 million square meters, and surged by 81.6% YoY. LCD monitor panel area shipments posted the largest growth among all three applications, up by 8.9% from 1.785 million square meters to 1.944 million square meters; this is followed by NB panel shipments with 5.7% MoM increase to 1.084 million square meters, and TV panel shipments rose by 2.1% MoM to 5.551 million square meters.
Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Nov-09 (K square meter)
LCD TV Panels
Global LCD TV panel shipments inched up by 0.6% MoM to 15.11 million units in November, and YoY growth posted a triple-digit growth, up 101.3%. Size-wise, 32"W secured its No.1 ranking with 38.2% market share; followed by 42"W, which outpaced 26”W with 11.7% share. Second, ratio of 26’’ and below TV panels fell by 1.8%, with 21.6"W decreasing the most, by 1.4%. Third, ratio of 37’’ and above TV panels rose by 1.9% MoM to 39.1%, indicating strong growth momentum of large-sized TVs in November (average size of LCD TV increased from 33.78” in October to 34.09” in November) In addition to market expectations of outstanding TV sales in the U.S and Europe during year end, the persistent growth momentum of panel shipments is buttressed by the advanced stocking-up of panels in preparation for sales in China during the coming New Year and Chinese New Year.
Notebook Panels
NB panel shipments (including the 8.9” and above) recorded an increase of 2.7% MoM to 18.17 million units, thanks to continued new product launches before year end; the figure surged 73.7% YoY. Size-wise, the ratio of 8.9’’~11’’ notebook panels slid from 24.6% in October to 20.3% in November; among which, ratio of 10.x"W receded most substantially by 2.9% to 18.5%. Of all 12" and above notebook panels, shipments of 15.6”W showed most exceptional growth of 5.1%, and secured the No. 1 position in large-sized notebook panels with 34.0%; followed by 14”W with 13.7% share in second place.
LCD Monitor Panels
In November, global LCD monitor panels posted the most significant growth among the three applications, total shipments rose by 7.1% MoM to 15.11 million units, thanks to downstream customers’ inventory replenishment; YoY growth rate reached 55.3%. Size-wise, 18.5”W remained the mainstream size with 21% ratio, while 19”W added 0.8% to 17.9%. By segments, ratio of 16:9 products added 4.4% MoM to 54.8%, with 21.5"W and 27"W gaining 2.5% and 1.3% respectively; demand for conventional 4:3/5:4 panels continued its downward slide, with shipments falling by 4.4% to 17.4% share.
In conclusion, demand for large-sized panels posted growth in the down cycle; yet, it remains to be seen whether sales performance in the retail market would be as positive as expected.
