LCD monitor panel shipments demonstrate phenomenal growth momentum in December; optimistic outlook in the TFT-LCD industry during 1Q10
According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) rose by 1.2% MoM to 50.15 million units in December 2009, and its YoY performance surged by 87.2%. In December, capacity of LCD monitor panels was constrained by the tight supply of several components. Meanwhile, downstream customers have begun to replenish their inventory due to low inventory levels. Optimistic about New Year and Chinese New Year sales, China market is also stocking-up in advance. This move spurred strong demand for LCD monitor panels and LCD TV panels, and subsequently triggered the price rebound of monitor and TV panels at the end of December. In light of the above, global large-sized panel shipments posted another all-time high in December.
Looking at shipments of the 3 main applications – total shipment of LCD monitor panels grew significantly by 10.4% MoM and 71.5% YoY to 17.93 million units. This positive performance was driven by inventory replenishment, and panel procurement triggered by the price rebound. Second, LCD TV panel shipments inched up by 0.1% MoM to 15.14 million units. On an annual basis, shipments surged by 123.8%, this strong growth in demand is mainly spurred by China government’s implementation of electronic product subsidies and the gradual recovery of the global economy. Third, Notebook panels shipments declined substantially by 6% MoM to 17.09 million units. This is because the effect of Windows 7 launch has gradually weakened. However, on an annual basis, notebook panel shipments rose by 78.8% YoY.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Dec-09 (K units)
The aggregated area shipment in December added 0.4% MoM, from 8.58 million square meters to 8.614 million square meters; and a surged by 100.8% YoY. LCD monitor panel was the only application with an increase in area shipments, up by 10% to 2.138 million square meters. On the other hand, TV panel shipments fell by 1.6% MoM to 5.464 million square meters, and notebook panel shipments slid 6.7% MoM to 1.012 million square meters.
Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Dec-09 ( K square meter)
LCD TV Panels
Global LCD TV panel shipments added slightly by 0.1% MoM to 15.14 million units in December and rose 123.8% YoY. With optimistic outlook toward New Year and Chinese New Year sales, TV panel demand demonstrated strong growth momentum. Size-wise, ratio of 26’’ and below TV panels inched up by 0.9%; mainstream 32"W rose by 1%, accounting for 39.3% market share; ratio of 40”W and above panels fell by 1.5%. At the end of 2009, China’s Ministry of Finance announced an extension of the electronic product subsidies program, expanding the scope of subsidies, and increasing the dimensions eligible for subsidies. This policy is expected to stimulate panel sales in the upcoming months.
Notebook Panels
NB panel shipments (including the 8.9” and above) declined by 6% MoM to 17.09 million units in December; the figure rose by 78.8% YoY. In 4Q09, panel shipments declined as the effect of Windows 7 launch gradually weakened; in particular, shipments of 11.6 and above notebook panels decreased significantly. Size-wise, although shipments of 15.6”W declined substantially by 1.5%, it still accounts for 32.5% of total notebook panel shipments; on the other hand, 17.3”W notebook panels added 1.4%, driven by increased shipment from Korean panel makers.
LCD Monitor Panels
In December, global LCD monitor panel shipments rose by 10.4% MoM to 17.09 million units, YoY growth rate reached 71.5%. Downstream customers adjusted their demand for panels at the end of 3Q09, and their inventory was gradually reduced to a healthy level. Hence, due to weaker demand for monitor panels, panel makers allocated more capacity to the production of TVs panels, which have relatively stronger demand. However, demand for monitor panels gradually recovered thereafter. By the end of 4Q09, downstream customers, with slightly low inventory levels, began to replenish their inventory, but faced the tight supply of panels. As a result, panel price rebound occurred earlier than expected. Size-wise, those that increased in ratio are 19” and 20”W, up by 0.8% and 1.8%. On the other hand, 17”, 21.5”W, 27”W declined by 0.8%, 1.2%, and 0.7% respectively.
Conclusion
“Every cloud has a silver lining” aptly describes the TFT-LCD industry in 2009. The industry demonstrated an outstanding performance, and robust demand in 4Q09 led to a stronger down cycle. Overall large-sized panel shipments reached 148 million units, up 1.4% QoQ, an improvement from its previous conservative projections. As for market outlook for the first half of 2010, although there is still a supply gap in the upstream components in 1Q10, and the short supply may extend into mid-1Q10, the tight component supply will gradually improve and normalize thereafter. After the Chinese New Year, panel customers’ demand momentum will play a key role in the development of the industry in 2Q10.
