Global large-sized panel shipments rose by 1.4% QoQ to 147.57 million units in 4Q09
Overall Panel Shipment Review for 4Q09
Extending the growth momentum from the previous two quarters, global large-sized TFT-LCD panel shipments grew by 1.4% QoQ to 147.57 million units, YoY growth increased substantially by 61.2%. Among three main applications, both LCD TV and >8.9” notebook panels maintained steady growth, up by 11.4% and 0.6% respectively. However, monitor panel shipments reduced by 5.6%. This is because monitor panel inventory is at a relatively healthy level, and monitor panel prices fell at the end of 3Q09, ahead of other applications; with declining prices, the volume of panels procured was only sufficient to meet the minimum demand. Hence, shipments in the first two months of 4Q09 declined substantially, dragging down the overall shipment performance in 4Q09. In terms of area shipment, spurred by substantial increase in volume and panel size of TV and >8.9 notebook, the aggregated area shipment surged 7.0% QoQ to 25.44 million square meters. On the whole, panel industry out-performed its previous expectation of holding steady, and posted historic high performance in both unit shipments and area shipments in 4Q09.
The main reasons contributing to the moderate growth of panel shipments in 4Q09 are: first, TV panels were stimulated by demand from the end market – downstream customers have been restocking in preparation for the Chinese New Year sales. Second, shipment growth of TV panels and notebook panels was driven by global economic recovery. Panel prices declined in 4Q09; hence, in anticipation of decreasing panel prices, downstream customers deferred their panel procurement. However, this phenomenon was only reflected in the more price-sensitive monitor panel segment; demand for TV panels and the overall notebook panel demand remained robust, therefore, overall large-size panel shipments still posted outstanding performance in 4Q09.
TV panel shipment
In 4Q09, global LCD TV panel shipments continued to post the highest growth among all three applications with 45.27 million units, up by 11.4% QoQ, and 92% YoY. Since February 2009, TV panel shipments have been showing strong growth, and the growth momentum extended for 3 consecutive quarters. Two factors contributed to this growth: first, China’s implementation of the electronic product subsidy program stimulated the boom of its domestic demand. Second, global economic recovery drove remarkable growth in demand for LCD TVs this year. Size-wise, 32W is still the mainstream size with 38.6% shipment ratio, dipped by 0.2% QoQ; shipments of 40”W and above products added 0.7%. Average size of TV panels increased from 33.63" to 33.89" in 4Q09.
Monitor panel shipment
In 4Q09, global LCD monitor panel shipments contracted by 5.6% QoQ to 49.34 million units; compared to 3Q08, when the market was adversely affected by the financial downturn, this is a significant increase of 43% YoY. Size-wise, shipments in 4Q09 continued to demonstrate the conversion to 16:9 models, in particular, several 16:9 products increased in ratio, such as 15.6"W (+1.2%), 21.5"W (+0.9%), 23”W (+0.9%), and 27"W (+1.0%). On the other hand, 16:10 models, such as 19"W and 22"W, receded by 2.2% and 1.3% respectively. Ratio of square models increased by 2% to 18.8%, this is mainly driven by the 1.8% increase in 19” products. Although monitor panel shipments declined in 4Q09, monitor panel prices have begun to rise at the end of 4Q09. The rising price trend led to an increase in panel procurement in shipments towards the end of the quarter; this softened the rate of decline in 4Q09. Outlook for 1Q10 – affected by the rising price trend in 1Q10, increased panel procurement may be able to counter the slow-season effect in shipments.
Notebook panel shipment
In 4Q09, total notebook panel shipment (including 8.9W and above) added 0.6% MoM to 52.96 million units, and 58.4% YoY increase. This can be attributed to the demand from brand vendor’s introduction of Windows 7 models and Intel’s new generation operating platform Capella. Size-wise, shipments of the low-cost Netbooks receded slightly after two consecutive quarters of growth; of which, 10.x"W and 11.x"W decreased more substantially by 1.9% and 1.0%. As for large-sized notebook shipments, ratio of 16:9 products reached 79.4%, and those that recorded growth were mainly 15.6"W (+5.2%), 17.3"W (+3.1%). The increasing dominance of the 16:9 segment squeezed the ratio of the 16:10 segment to 20.6%, down 7.0%. After the launch of Windows 7 operating system loses steam, the market holds a more conservative attitude toward notebook panel shipments in 1Q10.
Regional TFT-LCD Panel Shipment
Looking at the market share of regional large-sized TFT-LCD panel shipments in 4Q09 – extending the momentum from 3Q09, Taiwan and Korean panel makers’ capacity utilization continue to be the fully-loaded; therefore, 4Q09 regional panel shipment ratio was similar to that of 3Q09: Korea’s regional market share slipped from by 0.1% from 50.1% to 50.0%; similarly, Taiwan’s share fell from 43.3% to 43.2%; Japan’s share added 0.4% to 2.8% thanks to Sharp’s capacity increase from its 10th-generation line; and China’s share accounted for 4.0% of the total.
Of the three main applications, in TV panel shipments: Korean makers topped the chart with 49.9%, followed by Taiwan makers with 39.5%, Japanese makers with 9.0%, and lastly, Chinese makers with 1.6%. Second, in notebook panel shipments: Korean makers also ranked No. 1 with 53.7%, followed by Taiwan makers with 44.9%. Third, in monitor panel shipments: with 46.1% share, Korean makers outpaced Taiwan makers’ 44.8%, Chinese makers were at the third place with 9.1%.
Panel ASP
As for 4Q09 panel ASP by unit, average unit price of all three applications declined in 4Q09, down by 1.6% to $130 compared to 3Q09. This decline can be attributed to the price decline of monitor panels at the end of 3Q09, which took place ahead of other applications. Similarly, for panel ASP by area, the average price per square meter decreased by 5.7% QoQ from $743 to $700. The decline in average unit price among all three applications is fairly consistent: TV panels decreased by 2.9% QoQ to $244; notebook panels down by 5.2% QoQ to $62; and monitor panels slid by 8.5% QoQ to $81, the most significant decline among the three applications.
