Large-size panel shipments declined by 5% in April; reflecting the strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market

by WitsView on May.12 2010

According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments fell by 5% MoM to 50.93 million units in April 2010. This can be mainly attributed to the overinflated demand from high expectations of the hot season in 1Q10, which led to excessive product pull-in, and caused the gradual inventory build-up among brand vendors. Furthermore, panel prices began to fall in April, therefore, before the price turning point is confirmed, brand vendors will maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward demand. Hence, the conservative attitude accentuates the tension of slow season.

Of the four applications in April, TV panel shipments rose by 2.1% MoM to 16.14 million units, driven by strong shipment momentum from Taiwan makers. However, shipments of the other three applications recorded a MoM decline due to weakening demand. Of which, monitor panel shipments slid by 10.7% MoM to 17.17 million units; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel shipments fell by 5.4% MoM to 14.23 million units, while netbook (<12.1-inch”) panel shipments slipped 4.3% MoM to 3.4 million units.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Apr-10 (K units)

The aggregated area shipment in April decreased by 2.2% MoM, to 9 million square meters. On an annual basis however, area shipments grew by 45.3% YoY. Of individual applications, TV panel shipments added 1.9% MoM to 5.856 million square meters; monitor panel shipments declined by 10.4% MoM to 2.094 million square meters; notebook panel shipments fell by 6% to 941 thousand square meters; while netbook panel shipments slipped 3.5% MoM to 109 thousand square meters.

Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Apr-10 (K square meter)

Size Wise:

LCD TV panels: in April, shipment ratio of ≦26" TV panels decreased to 20.9%, the ratios of individual sizes varied as follows: shipment ratios of 26"W and 22”W dipped 0.8% and 0.5% respectively, while shipment ratios of 23.6”W and 18.5”W added 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Shipment ratios of 32"W and 37"W added 1.3% and 0.4% respectively, thanks largely to the promotion of entry-level models in the end-market. On the contrary, shipment ratio of >40"W fell by 0.7%, with 40”W and 47”W declining the most, both down by 0.6%.

Notebook panels: of global netbook and >12.1"W notebook panel shipment ratios in April: 15.6"W (16:9) continued to secure its No. 1 position with 37.1%; shipment ratio of 14.0”W posted the largest monthly increase, up 4.4% to 21.0%. On the contrary, sizes that posted decline in shipment ratios are 15.4”W (-1.7%), 14.1”W (-1.5%), and 13.3”W/13.4”W (-1.4%).

LCD monitor panels: in April, affected by fewer number of suppliers, apart from a decrease of 1.7% in 17” products, shipment ratios of 16:10 monitor panels recorded a 1.8 % sequential decline, namely, 20.1”W (-0.6%), 19”W (-0.6%), and 22”W (-0.4%). Of the sizes that grew in shipment ratios, 16:9 products posted the largest growth, 20"W increased the most by 1.5%, and 21.5"/21.6" added 1.5% thanks to stable supply from multiple sources.

Conclusion

In line with WitsView’s conservative projection, the decline in both price and shipment volume in April triggered a drastic decrease in 2Q10 demand visibility. Additionally, it reflected that pressure from cell panel inventory and set inventory has not been completely lifted, and that downstream customers are waiting for prices to bottom out in May/June. However, according to WitsView, demand adjustments in the slow season will help restore the equilibrium of supply-demand in the industry supply chain, in order to prevent a “weak hot season” in 2H10.

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Large-size panel shipments declined by 5% in April; reflecting the strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market

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