Large-sized Panel Shipments Reached a Historical High in May due to Downstream Vendors’ Aggressive Restocking under Expectations of an Imbalance in Supply and Demand in 3Q10

by WitsView on Jun.15 2010

According to the latest survey from WitsView, a research division of TrendForce, large-sized panel shipments grew 9.6% MoM to 55.8 million units in May 2010. Downstream vendors restocked aggressively in May due to the potential unbalance in panel supply and demand in 3Q10. Moreover, panel makers became more cautious in inventory control and capacity adjustment since there was no substantial decrease in panel demand in the slow season of 2Q10. Therefore, even though panel price began to drop in April, it only posted a moderate slide under the effective control over supply and demand; and panel shipment, on the other hand, recorded a stable growth.

Shipments of four applications rose individually in May. Netbook (<12.1-inch) panel shipments increased by 17.7% MoM to 4 million units, driven by the drastic increase in shipment from Korean panel makers; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel shipments grew by 15.3% MoM to 16.4 million units; LCD monitor panel shipments increased by 8.4% MoM to 18.62 million units, while LCD TV panel shipments rose by 4% MoM to 16.78 million units.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in May-10 (K units)

The aggregated area shipment in May increased by 5.5% MoM to 9.49 million square meters. Of individual applications, netbook (<12.1-inch) panel area shipments jumped by 18.5% MoM to 129 thousand square meters; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel area shipments grew by 16.5% MoM to 1.096 million square meters; monitor panel area shipments rose by 8.2% MoM to 2.266 million square meters, while TV panel area shipments increased by 2.5% MoM to 6.001 million square meters.

Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in May-10 (K square meter)

Size Wise:

LCD TV panels

In May, shipment ratio of ≦26”LCD TV panels grew by 2.2% MoM to 23.1%. Among which, shipment ratios of 18.5”W, 21.5”/21.6”W and 26”W increased by 2.5%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. 32”W and 37”W slightly declined by 0.8% and 0.7% individually even though both of their shipment units increased. The overall shipment ratio of ≧40”W faced a decrease of 0.8%, of which 40”/42”W was down by 1.3% while ≧50”W added a 0.3%.

Notebook panels

In May, global netbook and >12.1”W notebook panel shipment ratios are as follows: mainstream 16:9 products such as 15.6”W topped the overall panel shipment ratios to 33.9%; 14.0”W came in second at 20.5%, while 17.3”W and 13.3”/13.4”W panel shipment ratios rose by 4.1% and 1.5% respectively. However, 16:10 shipment ratios decreased by 1.8%.

LCD monitor panels

In shipment ratios of global LCD monitor panels in May, 18.5”W reached 21.9%, follow by 19”W, which added 1.5% growth MoM to 19%. 21.5”/21.6”W also posted an increase of 12%. >20” shipment ratio dropped 0.7% MoM, more specifically, 22”W(+0.6%), 20.1”W(+0.5%), 23”W(+0.5%) and 23.6”W(+0.3%).

Conclusion

Witsview indicated that the manipulating strategies of aggressive restocking from downstream vendors will potentially increase their inventory. It will also affect demand for panels, and cause a change in panel supply and demand in 3Q10. Furthermore, sales of IT products will enter its hot season in 3Q10, and brand vendors in China will be preparing for sales promotion for the National Day Holiday after their inventory adjustment for TVs is complete. It is expected that panel supply and demand will remain tight in 3Q10 if end-market demand remains strong and inventory is effectively cleared away. However, many uncertain elements still exist in 2H10 even though the market is optimistic toward the upcoming hot season. As a result, WitsView will be even more cautious in observing the upcoming market conditions.

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Large-sized Panel Shipments Reached a Historical High in May due to Downstream Vendors’ Aggressive Restocking under Expectations of an Imbalance in Supply and Demand in 3Q10

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