Large-sized Panel Shipment Decreased by 3.2% MoM, Only TV Panel Shipment Increased against Downtrend

by WitsView on Jul.14 2010

According to the latest survey by WitsView, the research division of TrendForce, large-sized panel shipment posted a decrease by 3.2% MoM to 54.02 million units. In 1Q10, an imbalance in panel supply and demand occurred which was caused by component shortage. In order to avoid the similar imbalance occurring in 3Q10, downstream clients restocked aggressively in preparation even though 2Q10 was the traditional slow season. In June, the shipment volume remained flat compared to the shipment volume in May. Moreover, panel makers faced the pressure of quarter-end inventory and issuing quarterly report. Therefore, in spite of the weak panel prices, panel shipment still remained at a certain level. Overall, large-sized panel shipment grew by 9% QoQ to 161 million units.

Of four applications, the only application that recorded an increase in shipment was LCD TV panels, which grew by 0.9% MoM to 16.94 million units. Among which, both <26”W and >40”W panel shipment increased by 1.3%. Panels that are applied in IT products recorded a decline; namely, LCD monitor panel shipment slid by 5.2% MoM to 17.65 million units; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel shipment dipped by 1% MoM to 16.23 million units, while netbook (<12.1-inch) decreased by 20% to 3.2 million units, the largest MoM decline. In terms of the limited nature regarding size and performance, netbooks have become less attractive to consumers. It is expected that the rising star Tablet PC may erode the market share, and netbook shipment may weaken gradually.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Jun-10 (K units)

The aggregated area shipment in June decreased by 1.1% MoM to 9.38 million square meters. Of individual applications, TV panel shipment inched up by 0.5% MoM to 6.03 million square meters; monitor panel shipment dropped by 4.1% MoM to 2.174 million square meters; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel shipment decreased by 1.7% MoM to 1.078 million square meters, while netbook (<12.1-inch) panel shipment slumped by 21.2% MoM to 102 thousand square meters.

Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Jun-10 (K square meter)

Size Wise:

LCD TV panels

In June, shipment ratio of ≦26”LCD TV panels inched up by 0.1% MoM to 23.2%. Among which, shipment ratios of 18.5”W and 24”W increased by 1.2% and 0.1% respectively. 32”W slightly declined by 0.3% and 37”W increased by 0.1% even though both of their shipment units increased. The overall shipment ratio of ≧40”W inched up by 0.1%, of which 40”/42”W added by 0.5% while 46”/47”W and ≧50”W were down by 0.2%.

Notebook panels

In June, global <12.1”W netbook and >12.1”W notebook panel shipment ratios are as follows: mainstream 16:9 products such as 15.6”W topped the overall panel shipment ratios to 39.1%, added by 5.2%; 14.0”W came in second at 21.3%, while 17.3”W and 13.3”/13.4”W panel shipment ratios decreased by 3% and 0.7% respectively. However, 16:10 shipment ratios increased by 0.6%.

LCD monitor panels

In shipment ratios of global LCD monitor panels in June, 18.5”W declined by 0.9% MoM to 21.1%, follow by 19”W, which decreased by 1.1% MoM to 17.9% while 21.5”/21.6”W reached 13.6%. Overall, >20” shipment ratio grew by 1.7% MoM, more specifically, 21.5/21.6”W(+1.6%), 27”W(+0.8%), 23”W(+0.3%), and 24”W(+0.2%).

Conclusion

WitsView indicated that the manipulating strategies of aggressive restocking from downstream vendors reflected the optimistic forecast toward end-market demand in 3Q10. However, in 2Q10, the end-market demand did not post a substantial growth even though large-sized panel shipment reached a record high. As a result, inventory level among downstream clients has been building up. Thus, while entering 3Q10, panel demand will rely on the end-market demand and downstream clients’ inventory closeout. On the other hand, when panel prices drop to the panel makers’ total cost, it may possibly trigger another capacity adjustment and tight supply of panels, which may further stimulate price rebound and shipment growth.

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Large-sized Panel Shipment Decreased by 3.2% MoM, Only TV Panel Shipment Increased against Downtrend

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