Restock for 1Q11 Demand; Large-sized Panel Shipments Up Nearly 10% in Nov
According to the latest survey by WitsView, a research division of TrendForce, large-sized panel shipments rose by 9.5% QoQ to 58.32 million units in November. Since the inventory adjustment in the supply chain came to an end, panel makers started to drive up the utilization rate significantly, leading to the growing panel shipments. After 3Q10 weaker hot season, demand for IT modules, in particular, increased with the panel prices bottoming out and rebound.
In IT modules, monitor panel shipments extended the growth momentum of October, and posted a 12.4% growth in November, while ≧12.1” notebook panel shipments soared by 14.6% MoM, which mainly attributed to that monitor panels in some sizes such as commercial 17”, 19” and <20”W models bottomed out and rebounded in prices, motivating panel makers to increase the shipments; additionally, the early panel procurement for the new model launches in early 2011 has started up currently. In <12.1” netbook panels, since netbook sale may be cannibalized by the explosive tablet PC sales in 2011, panel makers tried to clear away the on-hand inventory, leading to a 7.1% growth in shipments. In addition, other second- and third-tier vendors as well as non-brand vendors were aggressive in rolling out tablet PCs, spurring 10.1” panel demand, and further increasing shipments in <12.1” netbook panels. Entering the 4Q10 hot season, demand for tablet PCs is expected to grow substantially. Although tablet panel shipments fell moderately by 2.5% MoM, an increasing number of manufacturers devote more of their business into the tablet market. Hence, tablet panel shipment is expected to grow gradually with the expanding market scale.
In the wake of the shipment decline in October, TV panel shipments posted an increase of 5.3% in November. The upcoming Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday falls in the early February 2011. Hence, given the less working days in February and the labor shortage problem since 4Q10, downstream customers started to restock in preparation for CNY holiday sales after sales during China National Day holiday finished, driving TV panel shipments.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Nov-10 (K units)
In November, the aggregated area shipments reached 9.97 million square meters, growing by 8.3% MoM. Of individual applications, ≧12.1” notebook panel shipments rose by 14.7% MoM to 1.02 million square meters; monitor panel shipments increased by 12.6% MoM to 2.23 million square meters; <12.1” netbook panel shipments posted a 6.5% MoM growth to 121 thousand square meters; TV panel shipments was 6.51 million square meters, increasing by 6.2% MoM; tablet panel shipments dropped by 2.5% MoM to 87 thousand square meters.
Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Nov-10 (K square meter)
Size Wise:
LCD TV panel：In November, shipment ratio of ≦26” LCD TV panel rose from 23.2% to 23.8%; among which, 18.5”W and 23.6”W posted the largest increase from 2.9% to 3.3%, and 3.0% to 3.4% respectively. The shipment ratio of 32” LCD TV panel still maintained at 40%, yet dipped by 1.4% MoM. 37” fell by 6.5% to 6.1%. Since the overall shipments increased, ≧40” shipment ratio also added by 1.3%; among which, 46” and 42” posted the most substantial growth, from 5.2% and 9.5% to 5.8% and 10% individually.
Notebook panel (including tablets)：Size-wise, the overall shipments increased – ≧12.1 shipment ratio rose by 2.3%; 14.0”W posted the largest growth from 13.8% to 17.7%; 15.6”W maintained at 32.9%, yet dipped by 1.3% MoM; 17.3”W increased from 3.8% to 5.3%; <12” fell from 31.9% to 29.6%.
LCD monitor panel：In terms of the worldwide shipment ratio by size in November, ≦20”W inched up by 0.9% MoM, suggesting the panel prices bottoming out in ≦20”W sizes –19”W, 20”W and 18.5”W shipment ratios were outstanding, rising from 16.7%, 9.2% and 20.1% to 19.4%, 10.3% and 20.2% respectively. In >20”W shipment ratio, in addition to the moderate shipment growth of 1.2%, 0.3% and 0.1% in 23”W, 24”W(16:10) and 27”W models respectively, shipment ratio in other sizes appeared the downturn.
Conclusion
As the sales performance during China National Day holiday and on Black Friday in the US and Europe were not brisk in the traditional 4Q10 hot season, downstream inventory, piled up from 3Q10, was not reduced to the healthy level. At current stage, with the LCD monitor panel prices bottoming out, the launch of new notebook platform in 1Q11, and the rising demand for CNY holiday, the growth momentum in panel demand appears strong, even though the current shipments is the early restocking for the 1Q11 demand. WitsView indicates that amid the inventory problem, the continued panel shipment growth may have great impact on the supply and demand in 1Q11. If the demand remains weak, the inventory problem may once again emerge, followed by the pressure of capacity adjustment among panel makers in 1Q11.
